Our own National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) puts Iran five or ten years away from accomplishing nuclear fission, much less an implosive device. They do have conventional missiles which they have threatened to employ if attacked, though it would be unreasonable to contend that they don't have the right to defend themselves. An invasion by either the United States or Israel would be yet another preemptive strike illegal under international law. Besides, with the U.S. military already stretched thin, there would be resistance even from within to such a provocative move. We can't afford another repeat of the Iraq debacle; an expansion of hostilities would destabilize any hope of a peaceful resolution to the current occupation, and with China and Russia supporting Iran, it might precipitate the beginning of World War 3.
Perhaps this would be a good time for America to truly lead, by honoring the anti-proliferation treaties we've signed, and providing a better example to other nations. We should be offering to build wind-farms and solar-cell factories in Iran and Iraq (and other countries), instead of intimidating them over dangerous nuclear ambitions that we haven't abandoned ourselves. A major sea-change is necessary for these questions to be resolved adequately, and it starts with our government. We have a chance to make a difference if we seize the moment and make a commitment to renewable energy. The truth is, no one really needs nuclear power, and the quicker wind and solar capabilities can be implemented worldwide, the safer everyone will be. This the position we should be taking, and it's the only path to a brighter future.
Meanwhile, one of the reasons for our continued presence in Iraq is simply positioning for the next escalation. That's partly why we're unlikely to leave no matter how much people protest. Possession of Iran's oil is the coup de grace for America's imperialist ambitions, and once this is achieved, our goal of controlling all major oil sources in the Middle East will be complete. It will be a painful adjustment for the world, but the juggernaut is already on the way, and there is not much that can be done to stop it. Only U.S. withdrawal from the region and a newfound respect for the sovereignty of other nations can establish the precedent needed to create stability.
Referral of Iran to the U.N. Security Council for alleged nuclear warhead development is an action long desired by the Bush administration as a way to force the issue until it becomes untenable. Iran could diffuse the situation by backing down on threats to disallow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections and restart its (ostensibly domestic) nuclear program. These measures are precisely the opposite of the referral's purpose, and only increase the chances of an impasse. Negotiation is still an option for the moment, though it would require good faith by all sides, and a mutual desire for peace.
An aspect that has been mostly absent from press coverage is the monetary change going into effect on March 20, when Iran intends to switch to euros in lieu of dollars for oil. It would be exceedingly disadvantageous to the U.S. if this occurs, since it stands to disrupt our global monopoly. China, Russia, and other nations have also expressed an interest in going this direction, and that could leave America vulnerable to being called on the debt they are holding for us. If that happens our oil-based economy could collapse, and we would be at the mercy of the rest of the world, instead of the other way around. That's why we're rattling sabers over Iran right now; U.S. dominance is at risk. Maybe if we weren't so arrogant in the first place, these countries wouldn't be so eager to circumvent us.
It should be noted that Saddam Hussein began exchanging euros for oil back in Oct. 2000. This explains the rush to topple Iraq's government at the start of President Bush's first term (well before 9/11). Vice President Cheney's secret Energy Task Force is also properly viewed in this context. It makes sense of the "Mission Accomplished" declaration two months after the invasion; Iraq's oil was once again traded in dollars. It's absolutely vital to corporate interests in the U.S. and Great Britain for dollars to remain the main world currency, and from this perspective it's understandable that Britain is our only significant ally in the war. The so-called mainstream media will not touch this story, as it completely contradicts the official line.
A way out of this mess is practically inconceivable, unless President Bush can be weakened enough at home that he would be unable to initiate the next war. We know from experience, though, that he has never let anything like public opinion, International Law, or our own Constitution stop him. Iran's continued defiance of the U.N. would give our government all the rationale it needs to strike (never mind that we are also in violation over Iraq). If this ploy doesn't work, Dick Cheney has already intimated that we will invade Iran if there were to be another attack in the U.S., whether there is a connection or not. Considering that the Bush administration has done very little to actually protect us, it's unfortunately possible that they will get what they want. All we can do is apply everything in our power to minimize the damage until the country can somehow be set back on course, and hope that it's not too late.
Sources:
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,3604,1239644,00.html
http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0620-31.htm
http://energybulletin.net/7707.html
http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CLA410A.html
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article11613.htm
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/iraq/comment/0,12956,1036687,00.html
